Newspaper from Germany
Published in Hungary - Financial analysis - 01 Oct 2018 02:03 - 92
The new admin artice stated the chance to win a stone is still 0,05%.
But i beg to admins: Please give us the right drop chance for both blue and pink stones!
Because it is simply not true what they say. It is proven week by week!
A lot of player does at least 10k hits per week. Let see what the chances are:
1st hit: chance not to win it 0.9995; chance to win 0.0005
2nd hit: chance not to win it 0.9995; chance to win 0.0005
But the chance not to win 1st time AND 2nd time too is: 0.9995*0.9995 and to win: 1-0,9995^2
10th hit: chance not to win 0.9995^10 and to win: 1-0.9995^10 = 0.00099975
100th hit: chance not to win 0.9995^100 and to win: 1-0.9995^100 = 0.04878
1000th hit: chance not to win 0.9995^1000 and to win: 1-0.9995^1000 = 0.3935
10000th hit: chance not to win 0.9995^10000 and to win: 1-0.9995^10000 = 0,99327
It means, if you make 10k hits a week, you have a chance to win at least 1 stone is: 99,33%.
Dear players, please tell me, how many times you won since it has been introduced?!
For those who still do not understand the number above: pls google the key word: "Expected Value". There are very good examples on the Internet!
Please give us the right drop chance for both blue and pink stones! No more bull, no more lies, just the truth!
Or if you really think it shuold be 0,05%, please do a bugfix immediately!
Fun fact: it was told both stones has 0,05% to get. But Tovar revealed the real numbers, we got a lot less pink stones:
I made a simulation with 50k hits, these are the realistic numbers:
466. hit. You won a stone!
2946. hit. You won a stone!
3076. hit. You won a stone!
4100. hit. You won a stone!
9426. hit. You won a stone!
10771. hit. You won a stone!
11821. hit. You won a stone!
12700. hit. You won a stone!
12947. hit. You won a stone!
17398. hit. You won a stone!
20025. hit. You won a stone!
21107. hit. You won a stone!
24287. hit. You won a stone!
29394. hit. You won a stone!
31211. hit. You won a stone!
36673. hit. You won a stone!
39771. hit. You won a stone!
41364. hit. You won a stone!
41871. hit. You won a stone!
43960. hit. You won a stone!
44510. hit. You won a stone!
45118. hit. You won a stone!
47241. hit. You won a stone!
48252. hit. You won a stone!
49336. hit. You won a stone!
Ps: if you see an error in this article, pls let me know it!
UPTADE: another example for Mojo, BatalHiro, and Darken Rahl
We have a normal dice. And we are playing the follwoing:
Game 1:
1. you toss a dice: if you have 6, i will give you 100 gold.
2. if you have 1-5, you will give me 100 gold.
Will you play with me? No! because you have 1/6 = 17% and i have 5/6 = 83% chance to win!
BUT here is the secound game:.
Game 2:
1. you can toss a dice 10 times, and if you got at least once 6, i will give you 100 gold.
2. if you have 10 times between 1 and 5, you will give me 100 gold.
Will you play the secound game? YES! Because you have 10 tosses to win! (math: 1-(5/6)^10 = 84% )
You have 84% to win!
What you are saying, the two games are equal and you will not play any of them. What i have here proven is that they are not the same! 2. game worth playing!
And hitting for stones is exactly like the game above! But here you have a dice with 2000 (=0.05%) faces and only 1 of them is winning a stone! But i have 10k times to toss with this 2000-faced dice.
Thats why i have every week over 99% win. But i never win, so 0,05% is not true, or bad implementation, which means bug to be fixed!
UPDATE 2: you need only to understand the following thing: "Law of Large Numbers" as mentioned by Cacique Pariaguan
But i beg to admins: Please give us the right drop chance for both blue and pink stones!
Because it is simply not true what they say. It is proven week by week!
A lot of player does at least 10k hits per week. Let see what the chances are:
1st hit: chance not to win it 0.9995; chance to win 0.0005
2nd hit: chance not to win it 0.9995; chance to win 0.0005
But the chance not to win 1st time AND 2nd time too is: 0.9995*0.9995 and to win: 1-0,9995^2
10th hit: chance not to win 0.9995^10 and to win: 1-0.9995^10 = 0.00099975
100th hit: chance not to win 0.9995^100 and to win: 1-0.9995^100 = 0.04878
1000th hit: chance not to win 0.9995^1000 and to win: 1-0.9995^1000 = 0.3935
10000th hit: chance not to win 0.9995^10000 and to win: 1-0.9995^10000 = 0,99327
It means, if you make 10k hits a week, you have a chance to win at least 1 stone is: 99,33%.
Dear players, please tell me, how many times you won since it has been introduced?!
For those who still do not understand the number above: pls google the key word: "Expected Value". There are very good examples on the Internet!
Please give us the right drop chance for both blue and pink stones! No more bull, no more lies, just the truth!
Or if you really think it shuold be 0,05%, please do a bugfix immediately!
Fun fact: it was told both stones has 0,05% to get. But Tovar revealed the real numbers, we got a lot less pink stones:
I made a simulation with 50k hits, these are the realistic numbers:
466. hit. You won a stone!
2946. hit. You won a stone!
3076. hit. You won a stone!
4100. hit. You won a stone!
9426. hit. You won a stone!
10771. hit. You won a stone!
11821. hit. You won a stone!
12700. hit. You won a stone!
12947. hit. You won a stone!
17398. hit. You won a stone!
20025. hit. You won a stone!
21107. hit. You won a stone!
24287. hit. You won a stone!
29394. hit. You won a stone!
31211. hit. You won a stone!
36673. hit. You won a stone!
39771. hit. You won a stone!
41364. hit. You won a stone!
41871. hit. You won a stone!
43960. hit. You won a stone!
44510. hit. You won a stone!
45118. hit. You won a stone!
47241. hit. You won a stone!
48252. hit. You won a stone!
49336. hit. You won a stone!
Ps: if you see an error in this article, pls let me know it!
UPTADE: another example for Mojo, BatalHiro, and Darken Rahl
We have a normal dice. And we are playing the follwoing:
Game 1:
1. you toss a dice: if you have 6, i will give you 100 gold.
2. if you have 1-5, you will give me 100 gold.
Will you play with me? No! because you have 1/6 = 17% and i have 5/6 = 83% chance to win!
BUT here is the secound game:.
Game 2:
1. you can toss a dice 10 times, and if you got at least once 6, i will give you 100 gold.
2. if you have 10 times between 1 and 5, you will give me 100 gold.
Will you play the secound game? YES! Because you have 10 tosses to win! (math: 1-(5/6)^10 = 84% )
You have 84% to win!
What you are saying, the two games are equal and you will not play any of them. What i have here proven is that they are not the same! 2. game worth playing!
And hitting for stones is exactly like the game above! But here you have a dice with 2000 (=0.05%) faces and only 1 of them is winning a stone! But i have 10k times to toss with this 2000-faced dice.
Thats why i have every week over 99% win. But i never win, so 0,05% is not true, or bad implementation, which means bug to be fixed!
UPDATE 2: you need only to understand the following thing: "Law of Large Numbers" as mentioned by Cacique Pariaguan
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Green EyesGreen EyesKPYMTarsiZerstorerDrDrethDrDrethDrDrethPony of DarknessMrBogdansupermanager1Old LegendOld LegendHuMaViComments (92)
only 1 stone drop till now. ONLY 1
each hit have same drop chance...you don t multiply anything
yup @Mojo is right
But blue stones fall three times more than pink stone.Not the same probability
FlyingCangaroo, what you guys dont get is, there is no connection between your 1st hit and10000k hit. every single hit has its own chance of 0.05% drop. hitting 1billion times doesnt make you luckier to get stone on your 1.1bilion hit. its like winning a lottery but a small kind of lottery in this case. buying lottery ticket doesnt make you luckier for next week. your chance to win lottery stays same regardless of how many weeks you bought tickets.
Lol, pure guys...they have heard one thing about variance and repeating like an old broken vinyl 
But they have no clue about probability theory and mathematical statistics 
But they have no clue about probability theory and mathematical statistics 
I got 2 pink stones in 20 min difference, and i shooted 6b in land and 2b in naval
@Mojo, @BatalHiro, @Darken Rahl: i have to tell you you have no idea about what Probability is.
guys you do not see the point!
You are answering the wrong question again again and again!
It is true, you have allways the same chance, by every SINGLE hit. But the question is not that!
If i have 10k hits, what is my chance to have a stone. And it is not 0.05% for the whole scenario!
Let me give you another example.
We have a normal dice. And we are playing the follwoing game:
1. you toss a dice: if you have 6, i will give you 100 gold.
2. if you have 1-5, you will give me 100 gold.
Will you play with me? No! because you have 1/6 = 17% and i have 5/6 = 83% chance to win!
BUT here is the secound game:
1. if i say to you, you can toss a dice 10 times, and if you got at least once 6, i will give you 100 gold.
2. if you have 10 times between 1 and 5, you will give me 100 gold.
Will you play the secound game? YES! Because you have 10 tosses to win! (math: 1-(5/6)^10 = 84% )
You have 84% to win!
Hitting for stones is the game like above. But here you have a dice with 2000 faces and only 1 of the is winning! But i have 10k time to toss with this 2000-face dice
Thats why i have every week over 99% win. But do not win, so 0,05% is not true, or bad implementation, which means bug to be fixed!
So far I never took a stone from battlefield :-(
no stone till now NONE
NONE
you must be professor o7 explain admins !
I had 7 blue stones and tried to make my pants and robe to level 1. I succeed to upgrade the pants only. I don t think that is 50/50 chance
I hit 180k(180.000 Hit) and never get pink stone
@FlyingCangaroo, dude, tossing a dice 10 times is 10 different independent events. SEPARATED, 10 DIFFERENT EVENTS. you dont have a chance of 84% win rate on your 10th toss. here take this example: you have a coin. you flipped it and its tail. you flipped 2nd time and its tail again. you flipped it 3rd time and its tail again. your fourth flip still has the same chance of getting a head or tail. your chance to get head or tail is NOT LOWER OR HIGHER. and it is still 1/2 chance. DIFFERENT , SEPARATED events. this is what im trying to tell you. oh if you still want to get a good statistical data for such conditions? you need to toss your dice million times. and still it is a theoritical data in the end of the day. if what Tovar said is true about 609stones dropped till now. suppose this update implemented 300days ago that makes 2 pink stones are dropped everyday till now. you see? its not impossible. oh if what you are trying to say: the drop rate is it too low. yes I agree its low.
Stone drop rate is 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000005.,
your rate is wrong.
@Darken Rahl: you are arguing about a topic, you obviously still not understand!
yes they are independent!
And no one said that i have a chang of 84% at my 10th toss.
I have 84% chnace to toss at leas once out of all of my 10 tosses!
@FlyingCangaroo, you are saying that they are independent events and after that you are saying you have a 84% chance in your 10 tosses again. then how the fuk they are independent? do you realize what you are saying? according to your theory go to a online betting website and try to play dice. suppose you have 2000dollars to spend and 1 dice play is 1 dollars. so you have 2000 tries. what you are saying is you will eventually win against website and make thousand of dollars. because you have 2000 toss in total. this is why you always loose and the website wins. because it doesnt work like what you are saying...
@Darken Rahl, if you are right then why I did just one upgrade to Q1 using 7 blue stones if the rate for success is 50/50. Your example with the coin is valid for the losing side only. I wish to take your example and get the equipment upgrade and using same 7 stones to make all items to Q1.
We make 20 hits per click, right? One hit is different than one click on the button!
@Vl12, well, hear me out then. 3-4 days ago, with 4 blue stones I upgraded 2 different gloves to Q2 without any failed attempt and sold them on the market. how about that huh? they didnt change the rate of success, its just luck.
If you dont believe me ask mods to check my logs and they can confirm it
same for the stones. dropping a pink stone is possible if only you are lucky enough. this is why Pariaguan and I said it is like winning a small lottery. cause the chance is too low.
KPYM, i have tha same feeling, maybe the chance is not 0.05% per hit, but per clik (20hit). That would be more realistic...
Let me explain this. When you click the fight button, you do 20 hits. The dice is rolled for each seperate hit with the chance of 0,05%. Lets assume you did 200k hits. That means you rolled the dice 200k times WITH THE SAME CHANCE. I know of players who dropped 2 pink stones in 30 minutes. And there are players like me who never got any stones at all since they were introduced. Even with such a low chance, total drop number of pinks so far is 609. That is enough to create 203 Q5 equipments. If we increase the chance, everyone will have Q5 sets and it will be no different than +2k hospitals. And after sometime nobody will buy them. The code for stone drop has a very simple logic and IT IS NOT BUGGED.
Darken Rahl you are a disgrace to Turkish education system, unless you are still in elementary school.
Oh and another one. FYNh, if you dont understand, please read the article again. Afterwards if you still struggle comprehending basic maths, READ THE ARTICLE AGAIN.
FYNh, that s all true what you said! But only thing i stated, admins had to stop telling lies about chances! Because 0,05% is not ok! It is a lot less!
Zerstorer, Im sorry but what you wrote at Admin s article is wrong on so many levels. I have nothing to say and dont know how to explain more detailed to you about this simple problem.
FlyingCangaroo 10,000 weekly challenge hits dealt with 20-hit berks equals 500 attempts. With 500 attempts you have a 22% chance for success ..... 0.9995^500. Basically every 4 weeks you oughta receive a stone. Bad luck is possible over a span of a few months, but not entire year and for people dealing much more than 10k (500hits) per week.
Darken Rahl you cant because you clearly dont get basic probability.
It looks like we are all partially right and wrong about all this. Been reading some more and there is really no stat law (or even a serious theory) that indicates that your chances for a positive out come increase the more and more negative outcomes you previously have had. Gambles believe that the universe corrects itself somehow and that their chances do grow the more negative outcomes they get but this has no mathematical base. From a single even stand point your current chances will always be the same regardless of how many negative outcomes you have experienced in the past.... with that being said there is a statistical LAW called the law of large numbers. It is not a theory, it is a proven LAW. Now again it does not indicate that the probability of an SINGLE outcome changes as more and more events repeat itself but it does say that the larger the number of events repeated the closer the actual average of outcomes (negative and positive) needs to be to the mathematical probability with both of them being the same once the even is repeated an infinite number of times. So if you were to flip a coin and you got tails 9 times, there is no indication that to get heads on the next 5 will have a probability any different than 50/50, but in the long run the more times you flip the coin (100, 200 times) actual the average of each outcome (tail or heads) NEEDS to move closer to the 0.5 mathematical probability. And this should make total sense for all of us here... The problem is that the lower the probability the larger the number of events need to be repeated to see this happen. For that number there are only theories but no actual proven formula yet. Still we should be able to recreate the number of hits done since the stone drops started by averaging out daily battle hits or something like that and given the 609 drop number given we can find how far apart the actual average of drops per hit is compared to the 0.005% mathematical number.
Well, I should have play more lotto (well, it s a little bit weird in this topic ), like I said before, people with zero high lvl mathematical knowledge defending their idiotism what casinos has sticked into their head with two braincells
), like I said before, people with zero high lvl mathematical knowledge defending their idiotism what casinos has sticked into their head with two braincells Zerstorer, you still dont get it. you dont have 22% success chance on your 500th attempt. for such a data your 10k hit attempt is bullshit. you need billions of hits. maybe some number which is close to infinity like Pariaguan said.
You are speaking ret4ardness NOT on 500th attempt, ONE of his 500th attempt, you don t feel the difference, Dr. habil. prof. Darken?
And yeah, we have billions of hits since the event was started by admins, so we have a good assay here, and that 0,05 % is a LIE! 
NOT on 500th attempt, ONE of his 500th attempt, you don t feel the difference, Dr. habil. prof. Darken?
And yeah, we have billions of hits since the event was started by admins, so we have a good assay here, and that 0,05 % is a LIE! LOOOOL. it doesnt matter if its your first or 15th attempt of 500. ahaha I cant believe its too hard to understand for you guys. its such a simple shitto. you dont know how many hits been done since the implemention so you have nothing...
*ONE of his 500 attempt...
Yeah, you are a fakin LOOOOL like what you has typed you defending a thing what i m not said, defending a thing (what you said and not me) to defend your bullshit
I have had 5 semesters on uni with calculus 1-2, that other two I ve mentioned above...and the last one, PRACTICAL! Analysis/statistics...(and some other even more complicated mathematical things) what about you? Have you finished elementary school yet?
you defending a thing what i m not said, defending a thing (what you said and not me) to defend your bullshit
I have had 5 semesters on uni with calculus 1-2, that other two I ve mentioned above...and the last one, PRACTICAL! Analysis/statistics...(and some other even more complicated mathematical things) what about you? Have you finished elementary school yet? PRACTICAL? you need to know exactly how many hits done by people. but you dont know that and you are saying that 0.05% is a lie. you have no data but you say its a lie? AHAHAH. sorry professor I guess im the stupid one in this discussion. wish you a succesfull life.
I know it s well enough, like I said before...pls learn reading everyting, not only those things what you want to read
Like I said our assay is more than enough to say that 0.05% is a lie. So you can type all time to we need a big assay to pretend you are an expert in this subject, you won t be only because of that
I type last time: we have a well enough assay to draw a conclusion.
Like I said our assay is more than enough to say that 0.05% is a lie. So you can type all time to we need a big assay to pretend you are an expert in this subject, you won t be only because of that
I type last time: we have a well enough assay to draw a conclusion.*all time that we need a big....
well, I didnt know that you are capable of having an information about how many hits done in last 10 months. Im surprised because even admin team said there is no counter for hits. so dear professor, if you just could share this data with us maybe we can reach to same conclusion huh?
sorry for not reading comments of you guys..
but it s so so so simple like i wrote. every single hit is same and in every hit you have 0.05% chance to get stone, there is no counter for number of hit or anything.. you have same chance if you make 1hit or 1milion hit to get stone ...
TovarDante, i though you are smarter than Darken Rahl, but seems not 
Typical situation now: I don t even know to cry or to laugh hard
Ok so check this out guys. Looking at all the battles that ended yesterday and adding up all the hits done on each side there is a total of 1.7 mil hits.
I checked adm newspaper and the stone thing started exactly 314 days ago.
If we take the 1.7 mil hits a day (from yesterday) as a daily average and multiply by 314 we come up with a total 533 mil hits since the stone drops were introduced in the game. Let s assume that the daily hit average is 10% of yesterdays (which I doubt as many people have left the game since 314 days ago plus there are no big wars right now waiting for new updates) and we are talking about 53 million hits since the stone thing started (low balling the hell out of the average of course).
Looking at another angle, an active player make about 5k hits a week (just ff no tanking) which comes to over 700 hits a day. In canada there are about 8 active so lets assume there are 10 active ppl like this only doing average of 700 hits a day for only the topo 10 countries (100 total players). We multiply 700hitsx100 players x 314 days and come up with 22 million hits since the stones started dropping (again we are low balling the HELLLL out of everything).
609 pink stones/22 million is 0.0027% drop percentage... that is about 5% of the actual probability drop rate given to us by adm. Or 9.5 times lower
609 pink stones / 53 million is 0.0011% drop percentage.... that is 2.3% of the actual probability drop rate given to us by adm. Or 9.8 times lower
We all know that there had to be many more hits done than what we estimated so this numbers really show that after sooo many repetitions of the event the actual average of occurrences are way way off the mathematical probability.
I don t think adm are lying but I do think there is something totally wrong the algorithm they use to assign the drop rate.
Im surprised because even admin team said there is no counter for hits. And? Yeah it s so fakin mysterical thing...it s so impossible to give a number of hits what people have clicked in the past years with 100% assurance.
Yeah it s so fakin mysterical thing...it s so impossible to give a number of hits what people have clicked in the past years with 100% assurance. @Talan, then you could see there is nothing wrong with 0.05% chance lol.
Thanks Cacique Pariaguan! One approximate estimation in only some minutes how many hits we have last year. And it didn t take years to calculate...
Darken s next comment: that have to be dark magic! yeah, that s definitely dark magic to calculate with those big numbers, even super computer can t do that
Then You could see there is nothing wrong with 0.05% chance lol. - Okay, if you say so... Yeah, if you tell this, then it s truth...Why? Because, you say so...Ahhh, I see now! Pure logic!
Yeah, if you tell this, then it s truth...Why? Because, you say so...Ahhh, I see now! Pure logic! @Darken I am going to have to disagree with you. The average drops per hits with those daily hit averages is too low compared to mathematical probability. It should be 0.05% drip rate but we are getting so far 0.0011% drop rate. But its worse because we can all agree that the daily average I used (10% of yeaterdays total hits) is tooo conservative which means that the actual drop/hit average is way below 0.0011%
This is too fishy. There has got to be something wrong
So you say that 53million hits is enough to reach a certain conclusion to prove that 0.05% chance is a lie? if you say so..
Well there is mo way to know how many are needed. But common sense tells me that after almost a year and 53 million hits (which are more likely around he 200 million range is you ask me) we should be closer to 0.05%. I am not saying it needs to be exactly 0.05% but jeez 0.001% or lower is laughable
Look at it this other way Datken. If you were tosing a coin for a full year (not 43 million times but 1 time a day) and you find that after that time heads has come up 90% of the time instead of close to 50% wouldn’t you think something is going on? All im all this is just an opinion from me as stats are just probabilities but after so long thise numbers do make you raise an eyebrow
What adm should do (if they have not done it yet) is test proof their algorithm by running 10 billion iterations and look at a graph to see where the drop rate average is leaning too the more iterations they do.
Expected value theory is a normative theory. It only tells you what SHOULD be, not WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN. This is a real life case and it is a positive environment. Which means normative theories DONT WORK HERE. I have a masters degree, I have been messing with statistics for 6 years now but it seems I dont know anything
Good article, voted, its mathematical logic is right: drop rate is independent for each hit, but the probability of getting a stone after X hits increases simply because If you toss a dice probably you will not get a 6, but if you toss 100 dices, then It will be very improbable that every single result is something different than 6, with no 6. People who do not get this article should review statistics and probability studies
its very unlikely that your coin comes up with 90% heads. because the odd is 50% for each toss. in pink stone case, the odd is very very low and it is 0.05%. and if you get a pink stone with this kind of chance you should think there is something wrong. you got a pink stone with 0.05% chance da fuk? no ? you can get your pink stone on your 54million try. and boom and that doubles your chance of getting a pink stone. we dont know what will happen if 100 billions hit done. the larger the hit number gets the higher chance percentage you will get. do I make myself clear?
If any of you have read Expected Value after this article, I strongly suggest you to read Relative Risk and Odds Ratio. It s pure statistics. I cant understand why people keep dramatizing this issue; the game very simple and very consistent. If you roll 0,05 you get a stone; if you dont, dont get anything.
I get what you ate saying Darken but you lost me with that last part. To me it is pretty clear and well documented that each event is independent and will always have the same 0.05% chance regardless of how many times done. The point where I am not confortable with is that stat law indicates that eventually the overall (not single events) number of events and ocurrences averages need to start getting close to the mathematical probability. To me it makes sense by looking at small scale events plus reading it is an actual law. Now I am no expert whatsoever so if Fynh woth his master degree and experience says this is normal than I guess we need to take his word for it. I will definitely look into that literature Fynh recomended
it is just a legend
0 stones :p.
Blue stones in my opinion worthless anyway. I ve had two of them one successfully upgraded the equipment the other one destroyed it. After that I bought one from the market and it also destroyed my equipment.
Expected value theory is a normative theory. It only tells you what SHOULD be, not WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN. - FAIL!
Your assay is even bigger, your chance is even bigger to REALITY will more (and more) closer to the THEORY. An our ASSAY is pretty enough here to draw that conclusion what Cacique Pariaguan has explained very well.
Yeah, if someone affect this (thing/algorythm or just lying about), then we won t get what we should get even after really big numbers, but this affecting thing called CHEATING This is happening in online casinos, and also here with pretty much assurance...
This is happening in online casinos, and also here with pretty much assurance...*And our ASSAY....
**Your explain is FAIL, and what you suggest with. The two separate sentence is truth, but doesn t go against what we are saying about big numbers. You just have said two true sentence with small correlation with our (calculating) problem here. You would have said that the tree is green, the sky is blue....
From what I read here it seems that chances to get stone will rapidly increase if you put real money into the game. For all others like me admins will say Sorry, you just have bad luck!
I Got one blue and 1 pink
Read relative risk, odds ratio and hazard ratio. Also read about normative science and positive science. The difference matters. My educational career has been full of examining the holes of expected value theory. I have written a thesis about it and you re arguing with me on this. Confidence born of ignorance, I wont say another word about this.
As I said below admin s article:
If you have a white and a black ball in a bowl, then you have a 50% chance of getting a black bowl if you draw once. If you draw balls twice (returning them, just like here!) then you can get following combinations: 1. WHITE-WHITE. 2 BLACK-BLACK 3. BLACK-WHITE 4. WHITE-BLACK. As you can see 75% of the cases have at least one BLACK ball, which means the chance for getting a black ball increased from 50% to 75%, which in turn means you have 75% chance of getting a black ball IF YOU DRAW TWICE. Drawing it three times you have 87.5% of drawing a black ball (white-white-white is the only one losing combination and the remaining 7 combos all have at least one black ball). Which again means that the chance for getting a black ball increased from 50 to 87.5% when the number of attempts increased from 1 to 3. _______ Yes for a single hit its 0.05% but when youve dealt thousands of hits this chance likewise increases. It cant be explained easier than that. Its so obvious that you get a better chance at winning at the lottery (with the same odds every time) if you participate in it 1000 times and a lesser chance at winning if you only participate once or twice. Exceptions may occur, but the general trend should always remain. Anyone who doesn t understand that fact clearly must have sucked at maths at school. Therefore this effrontery at trying to rebuke proven THEOREMS, freaking AXIOMS of maths as well as your ludicrous fantasies about some contradictory theories you allegedly worked on are sad and laughable simultaneously.
you dont participate to the SAME lottery with your 100k hit. you participate to a DIFFERENT lottery with your 1 SINGLE hit. EACH ONE of your hit is a DIFFERENT lottery. and in pink stone case you can only buy 1 ticket or you can only participate 1 time to this lottery. I will also not write down anything else. thanks for brainstorm
And we are saying fakin big thank you for that! (not writing anything else )
(not writing anything else )I see its very hard for you to accept the truths. I suggest you to keep making things out of your a$$. you are very good at it professor
infinite retardation, beyond any plausible norm
Yeah, like Darken said, thanks toal for you comments and creating this big brain storm. I definitely took some things and learned a few out of all of this. I do not feel confident enough to defend my opinion to death so I am looking at all this with an open mind. If I happen to come across a scholar on the subject this will serve as a good conversation topic
@FlyingCangaroo you are wrong, becouse the rule here is for every hit...
for example if you have ONE dice with 2000 sides only one side win per toss how much times you think you must toss it to win?
how much times you think you must toss it to win? @itso if i toss 10k times i have very good changes to win, actually even 2-3 times!
make blue available on other sources too and/or increase probability for those useless stones and transform all 0.05% to pink ones. There is gambling on getting a stone, it s suicidal to get one blue after hard effort and destroy your equipment; virtual equipmewt (like in game) and rl (like your keyboard or worse, your monitor)
@FlyingCangaroo the chance for every single toss (hit) is 0,05%. Yes, there is a chance to win 2-3 (even more) times but still there is a chance not to win every single toss (hit).
lupio sam preko milijun killova i nisam dobio rozi kamen,dakle sanse su manje od 1:1 000 000
WhIsKyMaN: you are right! that s what i also said!
but still there is a chance not to win every single toss (hit).
But i counted what is the chance not to win, if you hit/toss 10k times, it is under 1%!!
it is so easy!
@FYNh, you are professor of Statistics. Please tell me the truht, where is the bug in my calculation.
Do i say mathematically incorrect thing, when i claim, that when i am tossing with 2000-faced dice (where only the one of 2000 is winning) 10k times, i have less than 1% not to win at least once?
@FlyingCangaroo, you may have 99% chance and never won anyway. The probability theory says that you 1000 times in row to lose with 99% chance and another one can 1000 times to win with probability 0.01%.
And yes, I never got any stone after caused 50 billion damage ))
Yes I can be unlucky once. But when all of us is unlucky always. That means our chance is NOT 0.05% that s it!
Omg tovar so stupid ... you have the same chance for each hit, but with 2 hits, the chance to have a pink stone is higher than with only one hit
2 blue and one pink stone since it has been introduced
shame...
The level of stones won, fell dramaticaly after the initial phase. IMHO
i have thrown 10 bazillion hits since this game started, i got 2 blue stones only. So, the odds are, my next hit i will get 2 pink stones. :-)
one blue
Guys, I have not read all of the comments, but I see that some people have objections. However, the article is true. Anyone who studied math can see this fact. The chance of getting a stone could not be 0.0005. FlyingCangaroo, nice analysis bro.
According to 0.0005 value, anyone who made 10K hit is expected to get 5 stones in average in the long run per each 10K hits.
Thanks Suppiluliuma
one blue stone only since introduced stones